COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR) UNTUK MENGANALISIS TREN POPULASI SAPI POTONG DI KABUPATEN PINRANG
Abstract
ABSTRAK
Informasi mengenai pertumbuhan populasi sapi potong di suatu wilayah sangat penting bagi para stakeholder terutama dalam pengambilan keputusan, terutama untuk mendorong peningkatan potensi dan mengatasi hambatan yang ada, guna memenuhi kebutuhan daging yang cenderung meningkat setiap periode. Karena datanya bersifat fluktuatif, prediksi data menjadi penting untuk membantu mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, menggunakan analisis tren. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tren pertumbuhan populasi sapi potong di Kabupaten Pinrang berdasarkan Gross Populasi dan Net Populasi periode 2019-2023 dan memprediksi tren populasi untuk periode 2024-2027 menggunakan Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kuantitatif deskriptif, menggunakan time series data pertumbuhan populasi sapi potong periode 2019-2023. Sumber data Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Pinrang dan Propinsi Sulawesi Selatan serta Dinas Peternakan dan Perkebunan Kabupaten Pinrang,. Data dianalisis menggunakan Gross Populasi, Net Populasi dan Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Gross Populasi dan Net Populasi mengalami tren penurunan yang signifikan terutama pada 2022-2023. Penurunan disebabkan rendahnya angka kelahiran, tingginya angka kematian akibat wabah penyakit, dan meningkatnya angka pengeluaran ternak. Prediksi CAGR menunjukkan tren penurunan populasi berkelanjutan hingga tahun 2027, dengan nilai -29.69%. Dampak dari tren ini, defisit daging sapi, kenaikan harga daging serta peningkatan ketergantungan daging dari luar daerah. Kesimpulan; Tren pertumbuhan sapi potong di Kabupaten Pinrang menunjukkan tren negatif pada 2019-2023 dan akan terus berlanjut hingga 2027, dengan nilai CAGR -29,69%. Guna mencegah dampak yang ditimbulkan , dibutuhkan intervensi kebijakan strategis melalui peningkatan kelahiran, adopsi teknologi reproduksi serta pencegahan dan pengendalian penyakit untuk menjaga keberlajutan peternakan sapi potong di Kabupaten Pinrang.
Katakunci: Compound Annual Growth Rate, Populasi, Sapi Potong, Tren.
ABSTRACT
Information regarding the growth of beef cattle populations in a region is crucial for stakeholders, especially in decision-making, to encourage improvement and overcome existing obstacles in meeting the increasing demand for meat in each period. Because the data is fluctuating, predictions are made using trend analysis. This study aims to analyze the growth trends of beef cattle populations in Pinrang Regency, based on Gross Population and Net Population, from 2019 to 2023, and to predict population trends for the 2024-2027 period using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The methodology employed in this research is a descriptive quantitative approach, utilizing time series data on beef cattle population growth from 2019 to 2023, sourced from the Central Statistics Agency of Pinrang Regency and South Sulawesi Province, as well as the Animal Husbandry and Plantation Office of Pinrang Regency. Analysis was conducted using Gross Population, Net Population, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). The results show that both Gross Population and Net Population experienced a significant decline, especially in 2022-2023. The decline was caused by low birth rates, high livestock outflow, and deaths due to disease outbreaks. The CAGR prediction indicates a continued decline in population until 2027, with a rate of -29.69%. The impact of this trend includes a beef deficit, rising meat prices, and increased dependence on imported meat. In conclusion, the growth trend of beef cattle in Pinrang Regency shows a negative trend from 2019 to 2023 and is expected to continue until 2027, with a CAGR of -29.69%. Mitigating the impact requires strategic policy interventions such as improving birth rates, adopting reproductive technologies, and preventing and controlling diseases to sustain the beef cattle farming industry in Pinrang Regency
Keywords: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Population, Beef Cattle. Trend.
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